Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives

Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, MarPolitical scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications.The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences broadly.
Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics Logical Methodological and Psychological Perspectives Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb

  • Title: Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives
  • Author: Philip E. Tetlock Aaron Belkin
  • ISBN: 9780691027913
  • Page: 238
  • Format: Paperback
  • Thought experiment Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics is an important book for all social scientists, not only those who study international relations The introductory paper, outlining different ways of using counterfactual arguments, is likely to become a standard reading in courses on methodology and research design. Counterfactual conditional Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Thought experiments, counterfactuals and comparative analysis Thought experiments, counterfactuals and comparative analysis ment reasoning that analyses social coordination and spontaneous order a fine example of which is Menger s account of ERIC Counterfactual Thought Experiments A Necessary Nevertheless, counterfactuals are an effective research tool, but comprehending this requires a clear understanding of their nature, the circumstances to which they are best suited, and robust protocols for conducting thought experiments. Counterfactual Thinking and Thought Experiments Florida Philosophical Review Volume XIV, Issue , Winter Counterfactual Thinking and Thought Experiments Winner of the Outstanding Graduate Paper Award at the Counterfactual thought experiments in world politics List of Contributors Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives Causes and Counterfactuals in Social Science Exploring an Analogy between Cellular Automata and Historical Processes Counterfactual Reasoning in Western Studies of Soviet Politics and Foreign Relations Counterfactual Thought Experiments Do Not Establish Bad Counterfactual Thought Experiments Do Not Establish Bad Faith in New York By Larry P Schiffer Squire Patton Boggs LLP Nov , The title above is taken from a quote found in a recent Second Circuit non precedential summary order in an insurance bad faith Counterfactuals, Thought Experiments, and Singular Causal Thought experiments are ubiquitous in science and especially prominent in domains in which experimental and observational evidence is scarce One such domain is

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