Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives

Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, MarPolitical scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications.The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences broadly.
Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics Logical Methodological and Psychological Perspectives Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb

  • Title: Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives
  • Author: Philip E. Tetlock Aaron Belkin
  • ISBN: 9780691027913
  • Page: 417
  • Format: Paperback
  • Thought experiment Counterfactual contrary to established fact thought experiments the term counterfactual was coined by Nelson Goodman in , extending Roderick Chisholm s notion of a contrary to fact conditional speculate on the possible outcomes of a different past and ask What might have happened if A had happened instead of B e.g If Isaac Newton and Gottfried Leibniz had Counterfactual thinking Overview The term Counterfactual is defined by the Merriam Webster Dictionary as contrary to the facts A counterfactual thought occurs when a person modifies a factual prior event and then assesses the consequences of that change. Deirdre McCloskey The Trouble with Mathematics and A real science, or any intelligent inquiry into the world, whether the study of earthquakes or the study of poetry, economics or physics, history or anthropology, art history or organic chemistry, a systematic inquiry into one s lover or a systematic inquiry into the Italian language, must do two things. The Bullshit Asymmetry Principle applied The counterfactual The counterfactual What s the right thing to do Analytical advocacy getting beyond the rhetoric of campaigners Creativity, Thinking Skills, Critical Thinking, Problem Dartmouth Writing Program support materials including development of argument Fundamentals of Critical Reading and Effective Writing Mind Mirror Projects A Tool for Integrating Critical Thinking into the English Language Classroom , by Tully, in English Teaching Forum, State Department, Number Critical Thinking Across the Curriculum Project, Metropolitan Community College Nootropics Gwern Notes on nootropics I tried, and my experiments pairs is blocks we can drop to pairs or blocks if we accept a power of . % chance of reaching significance. The Analysis of Knowledge Stanford Encyclopedia of The tripartite analysis of knowledge is often abbreviated as the JTB analysis, for justified true belief Much of the twentieth century literature on the analysis of knowledge Conscious Entities Interesting to see the review of progress and prospects for the science of consciousness produced by Matthias Michel and others, and particularly the survey that was conducted in parallel. Ten Reasons Evolution is Wrong Measure of Gold Revival Ten Reasons Evolution is Wrong Revised Introduction a Microevolution Defined Reason Genetics is not Evolution s Friend a Were Darwin s Galapagos Finches Evolution b What About Mutations c Population Genetics Factors d Beneficial verses Positive Mutations e Molecular Biology and Irreducible Complexity f Do Hox Homeotic Genes Save Evolution Theories Mandela Effect Mike, your comments are very clear to me and I believe you re on the right track with your questions and speculation My current thoughts are that this reality is rapidly approaching something with steep challenges that we don t necessarily recognize yet , and to those with insights than the public generally have reality shifting some variation of it looks like the best Plan B.

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